Monday Morning Meeting Notes (11/07/2022)

General Info:

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates by 0.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, bringing the fed funds rate to a range of 3.75-4.00%
• Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the Fed believes there’s still some ground to cover to bring inflation in line with their long-term 2% target, so ongoing rate increases should be expected
• Despite Chair Powell’s remarks about it being “very premature to talk about pausing rate hikes,” he did note that the time to slow the pace of rate hikes is coming at the next meeting (December 13^th-14^th) or the one after that (January 31^st-February 1^st) as the Fed will be taking “cumulative tightening” into account due to the lags between monetary policy and economic activity
• The October employment report showed 261,000 new jobs added (vs. 190,000 expected), while the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% (unemployment has been in a narrow range of 3.5-3.7% since March)
• The Bank of England (BOE) raised interest rates by 0.75% in its largest single hike since 1989
• Fun Fact: This Tuesday (11/8) will be a full Moon, and November full Moon is typically called the Beaver Moon. The name comes from the Colonial Era, as November was the month to set beaver traps and ensure a supply of warm winter furs before the swamps froze and beavers retired to their lodges
• As a proud former student of Penn State Beaver, I’ll just wear a Penn State Beaver shirt instead!

Monday 11/07:

• Activision Blizzard and Viatris report earnings
• Germany industrial production data
• Chile copper exports

Tuesday 11/08:

• Disney reports earnings
• U.S. midterm elections will decide control of Congress
• U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October
• Eurozone retail sales
• Twitter shares delist from the New York Stock Exchange after Elon Musk completes his takeover of the social-media company

Wednesday 11/09:

• U.S. wholesale inventories
• China releases aggregate financing, producer price inflation (PPI), consumer price inflation (CPI), money supply, and new yuan loans
• South Korea unemployment

Thursday 11/10:

• U.S. CPI data for October is expected to rise 0.6% month-over month and 7.9% year-over-year
• Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is expected to rise 0.5% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year
• U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing claims data
• The European Central Bank (ECB) publishes its Economic Bulletin

Friday 11/11:

• Veterans Day holiday
• The stock market will be open, the bond market will be closed, and banks will be closed
• U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will report preliminary data for November
• Germany CPI data for October
• Singles’ Day in China, which is the world’s biggest shopping event
• Alibaba and JD.com reached total sales of $139 billion in 2021; for context, Amazon’s 48-hour Prime Day had sales of $9.55 billion in 2021